At a meeting held by DBS Bank in Singapore, Intel CEO Patrick P. Gelsinger judged that AI hardware will remain in short supply for the next two to three years due to ongoing constraints in the technology supply chain. At this Singapore event on October 12, he systematically outlined core trends such as AI and quantum computing; at the time he made his shortage assessment, key components like memory chips were still in short supply, with prices rising month after month, and TSMC's packaging capacity had reached its ceiling. As an executive focused on chip processes and new materials, Gelsinger has always been sensitive to industry trends.

Intelligent agents drive CPU, quantum computing may be promising within three years

More intriguing is the shift in demand structure. Gelsinger pointed out that the popularity of intelligent agent AI is creating a stronger demand for CPUs rather than GPUs, which has become his lever for revitalizing Intel: revenue from the company's second-quarter data center and AI division increased by 59% year-over-year, and the old practice of "eight GPUs to one CPU" in AI training has been reduced to a ratio of four to one due to intelligent agents. He also mentioned that the token cost of cutting-edge models in China is significantly lower, and with such low costs, the performance has already been satisfactory. In the long term, funding is the primary constraint for expansion, but proving the return on investment is key to maintaining investor confidence. Spending money on infrastructure is just the first half, while the second half will be about who can deliver real returns with actual capital.

Regarding quantum computing, Gelsinger expressed optimism, expecting it to move into mainstream over the next three to five years, and reiterated that the key to technological adoption lies in finding suitable application scenarios - a judgment that aligns with the key investments he disclosed through a venture capital fund at the end of last month.