Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, posted on the X platform yesterday: "I speculate that AI will roughly double the U.S. GDP growth rate next year, from 2% to around 4%, maybe even higher."

Musk's prediction contrasts sharply with mainstream economic views. Morningstar said that the U.S. economic growth rate will slow down in 2027, and the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hikes have increased uncertainty about the economic outlook; Apollo Global Management estimated that U.S. AI capital spending between 2027 and 2029 could reach 3% of GDP; Moody's predicted that U.S. technology companies' spending on chips and data centers will approach $100 billion (about 672 billion yuan) in 2027.

The Scale of AI Investment Is Significant, But There Is a Lag in Productivity Growth

The current AI investment boom is indeed significant. Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, expects that U.S. AI-related capital spending could reach about 3% of GDP annually from 2027 to 2029, significantly higher than the 0.6% level three years ago.

However, historical experience shows that investment often takes some time to translate into productivity gains — for example, during the internet boom of the 1990s, investments took several years before they translated into productivity growth across the economy.

The Interest Rate Environment Adds Uncertainty

Wall Street financial professionals are discussing whether the massive AI spending can translate into real productivity improvements. Musk's forecast clearly belongs to the optimistic side. Mainstream economic forecasting institutions have a much more conservative view of U.S. economic growth, and the interest rate environment has further increased uncertainty: The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate to 4.00% on September 16, and Goldman Sachs expects another rate hike in October.

Analysts point out that higher interest rates are unlikely to prevent large technology companies from continuing to invest heavily in AI infrastructure, but they may make it more difficult for smaller businesses across the economy to raise funds for AI.