Although the AI startup Anthropic has not yet officially entered the public market, it has already caused a stir in prediction markets. According to the latest data from the prediction market Polymarket, investors currently bet that Anthropic will beat Elon Musk's SpaceX and secure the world's largest IPO in 2026, with the probability rising to 44%, just slightly behind SpaceX's 55%. Last week, SpaceX still held an absolute lead in this competition.

The rapid narrowing of the gap and the high attention from the market are closely related to Anthropic's astonishing financial growth. According to media reports, during routine investor updates, Anthropic disclosed that its annualized revenue had surged to $65 billion by the end of July, more than six times higher than the $9 billion level at the end of last year, far exceeding the $47 billion reported in May. Multiple sources indicate that Anthropic is actively preparing for an IPO, which could start as early as October this year.

In terms of valuation, SpaceX went public on Nasdaq in June with a valuation of about $1.8 trillion, raising over $80 billion, setting a record for the largest IPO in US stock history. Meanwhile, Anthropic's valuation in its previous public funding round in May was $965 billion. However, some investors expect Anthropic's valuation to reach $2 trillion or higher when it goes public, surpassing SpaceX. At the same time, investors predict that by the end of 2026, Anthropic's annualized revenue will rise to between $100 billion and $120 billion.

By comparison, its main competitor OpenAI has a latest valuation of $852 billion (based on June funding data). In terms of the listing schedule, OpenAI seems to lag behind Anthropic. It had secretly submitted an IPO prospectus to the US Securities and Exchange Commission in June but has not yet announced a specific listing date. Data from Polymarket shows that the probability of investors expecting OpenAI to delay its IPO to 2027 or later is as high as 78%, further confirming Anthropic's relative advantage in the listing process.