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On January 22 local time, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, broke his long-standing resistance to the World Economic Forum in Davos and made his first appearance at the Swiss World Economic Forum. During a summit dialogue with Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, Musk revealed an exact timeline for the commercialization of Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus.
2027: The turning point from factory to home
Musk revealed that Tesla plans to officially sell the Optimus robot to the public by the end of 2027. He believes that by then, the product's reliability, safety, and functionality will reach an "extremely high level," allowing users to command it to handle almost any household task, including taking care of children, pets, and elderly parents.
Evolution timeline: Currently, Optimus is performing simple tasks in Tesla factories. Musk expects that by the end of 2026, they will be capable of performing complex industrial tasks.
Future vision: Musk reiterated his prediction that "the number of robots will exceed that of humans," believing that with the widespread adoption of AI and robots, the global economy will enter an unprecedented "era of abundance."
Production ramp-up: The unavoidable "S-curve"
Although the outlook is optimistic, Musk also gave a sobering reminder on the social media platform X. He pointed out that the initial production of Optimus and the autonomous taxi Cybercab will be extremely slow due to the "novelty of parts and steps." This S-curve production process means early output will be very limited, but it will grow exponentially later.
Industry challenges: Data and implementation costs
Although Musk is full of confidence, there are still rational voices in the market. Mahoney Asset Management pointed out that the true success of Optimus depends on "scalable manufacturing evidence" and clear "unit economics." In addition, the lack of large-scale real-world data for training embodied intelligence models remains a key technical bottleneck for humanoid robots moving from laboratories to the mass market.