The global AI assistant landscape is undergoing a dramatic shift. New data from the web analytics firm SimilarWeb shows that ChatGPT's global desktop traffic share fell to 64.5% in January 2026, down from an absolute dominance of 86.7% in January 2025, losing over 20 percentage points within a year. Meanwhile, Google Gemini has risen strongly, with its share surpassing 21.5%, breaking through the 20% psychological threshold for the first time and becoming the biggest beneficiary.

 Market Share Shift: Gemini Leads, Grok Follows Closely

According to a 12-month trend tracked by SimilarWeb, the AI assistant market is evolving from a "single leader with multiple strong competitors" to a "dual leadership model":

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- Gemini: Maintains a leading growth rate through strategies such as multimodal generation, deep integration with the Android ecosystem, and free access;

- Grok (xAI): Quickly approaches DeepSeek (3.7%) in market share, leveraging X platform traffic and Elon Musk's personal brand;

- Claude, Perplexity, Copilot, and others remain stable around 2%, without significant growth.

 Users Vote with Their Feet: Functionality Experience is the Main Cause of Loss

Although the holiday effect caused a short-term decline in daily active users for all AI tools, the decline in ChatGPT's share far exceeded seasonal fluctuations. Independent tests reveal the core reasons:

- Gemini leads in image generation quality and multilingual support, especially favored in visual creation scenarios;

- Claude Code performs better in complex programming tasks, winning over the developer community;

- ChatGPT's innovation pace has slowed, reducing user perception of "freshness," while competitors continue frequent updates.

 OpenAI Faces a Dilemma: Adding Ads Risks Accelerating User Loss

Facing growth pressure, OpenAI is internally evaluating the feasibility of introducing ads into ChatGPT. However, management is highly cautious:

> "During this critical window when users already perceive Gemini as a better experience, inserting ads may be seen as 'betraying the free commitment,' further angering core users and accelerating the migration trend."

Currently, OpenAI still relies on enterprise API revenue and Plus subscriptions, but the loss of free users will long-term erode its ecological foundation—developers, creators, early adopters.

 AIbase Observes: The End of the Free Era?

The drop in ChatGPT's share marks the end of the "free lunch" era for AI assistants. Users are no longer satisfied with just "being able to use," but are seeking "better, more professional, and more immersive" experiences.

- Google uses Gemini to launch a "ecosystem + multimodal" strategy;

- Anthropic focuses on code and enterprise scenarios;

- xAI is tied to social media traffic;

- Chinese companies break through with open source and vertical scenarios.